Goal Difference, the value left after subtracting goals conceded away from goals scored. Of course it’s an important metric, but how important? This post will explore how often it has actually decided a team’s final position.

Notably, we must consider that some leagues use different metrics to separate teams on the same number of points such as head to head record and goals scored.

The most significant recent example that comes to mind, which completely contradicts the title of this post, was the 11/12 season whereby Manchester City won the title on goal difference from their rivals Manchester United.

The key thing to explore is whether the above was a one off example or whether goal difference is a determining factor across multiple seasons. We’ll look at the Premier League, Championship, League 1 and League 2.

2023-2024

Only two sides finished on even points in the Premier League last season, Brighton and Bournemouth in 11th and 12th place. So, whilst there is a financial incentive to finishing higher in the table, the significance I would say was not huge last season.

In the Championship, 4 teams finished on 56 points but again, this was mid-table and not a determining factor in the play-offs, title or relegation. The same can also be said for League 1 and League 2.

2022-2023

In the 2022-2023 season, not a single Premier League side finished on the same number of points so unfortunately there is not much to go off.

Finally however, we can use an example with major consequences. In the Championship, Blackburn and Sunderland both finished on 69 points, 6th and 7th. The significance being that positions 3rd to 6th all qualify for a play-off position. Sunderland had a much stronger goal difference, allowing them to reach the play off places.

2021-2022

Again, not too many exciting examples from the Premier League (sorry probably not a great read this!) it could have gotten interesting as Liverpool and Champions Manchester City were only separated by a single point, ifs buts and maybes I suppose…

Sheffield United and Luton finished on equal points in 5th and 6th positions, meaning that Sheffield United’s superior goal difference gave them a theoretically easier game, facing 4th place rather than 3rd place in the play-offs. Kind of irrelevant though as they were eventually beaten by Nottingham Forest in the play-offs.

Shout out to League Two this season, who not only had a title decided on goal difference, but also an automatic promotion place. In fact, that promotion place wasn’t even decided on goal difference, it was on goals scored which saw Bristol Rovers go straight up.

2020-2021 & 2019-2020

These seasons were both heavily disrupted by the Covid-19 Pandemic so let’s forget that these ever happened and look at a few prior.

2018-2019

I can’t believe that this season was 6 years ago, but I guess that is how time works. As per usual, the Premier League had nothing interesting to show about goal difference. Unfortunately, the same was true for all the other English divisions too.

2017-2018

Goal difference allowed Newcastle to secure a top half finish ahead of Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, all of whom finished with 44 points, but nothing else was particularly tight. Nothing very noteworthy in the Championship or League 1, thankfully League 2 saves the article again and with exactly what I was looking for, a relegation. Barnet were relegated to the National League after finishing with a 4 worse off goal difference than Morecambe.

2016-2017

This is as far back as I am going for today (unless popular demand wants to see this go back further) and the last chance for the Premier League to step up, does it? Absolutely not, nothing happened again. Championship delivered a goal difference relegation with Blackburn going down with a 2 worse goal difference than Nottingham Forest. What a year this was for the goal difference fans, Portsmouth also claimed League 2 supremacy on goal difference, seeing off Plymouth by 14 goal difference

So what have we learned here? Honestly, I’m not sure, but we do know that no significant Premier League outcomes have been decided by goal difference in the previous 8 seasons. Is it important, I guess and there have been some examples in recent years. Yet when people say ‘we need to boost our goal difference’ I question how decisive that will be come the end of the season, as believe it or not, points seem to carry much more weight!

I’m sure I’ve missed several examples so please let me know in the comments.

Goal Difference - Does it make a difference?